Old Rivals in a New Clash Shaping the Region’s Future
Written by: Armin Sijamić/Patria
Syria has once again become a focal point of global media attention. The truce that had held since March 2020 was broken on November 27 with an offensive, during which forces from Idlib captured the country’s largest city, Aleppo, within just eight days, followed by the fourth largest, Hama.
The guns of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli army had barely cooled before fighting erupted in neighboring Syria. Some recalled the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who during the Gaza Strip war said a new Middle East was emerging. Others argue the wars in Lebanon and Gaza are unrelated to the conflict in Syria, instead viewing it as an extension of Syrian disputes.
https://nap.ba/qpost/382451
Read more: The Battle for SyriaHowever, for Lebanon and Hezbollah, the Syrian conflict is undeniably linked, as the country serves as a critical logistical route for supplying the Shiite movement. “We created ISIS to destroy Hezbollah,” claimed American General Wesley Clark in a widely cited interview with CNN, adding that ISIS was supported by “our friends and allies.” During his first presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly accused then-President Barack Obama of “founding ISIS.”
Syrian Inferno
The primary target of ISIS, or the Islamic State, was Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whom opponents accuse of dictatorship and brutal governance, arguing he must be removed from power. Despite the existence of longer-reigning autocrats in the Muslim world, the international community has focused its criticisms on Assad, often citing Syria’s lack of democracy while backing the Syrian opposition.
Today, ISIS’s presence in Syria is minimal. The main force aiming to topple Assad is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former affiliate of al-Qaeda. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, is wanted by the United States for terrorism, with a $10 million bounty on his head. However, HTS is now viewed by the U.S. as a lesser evil compared to Assad, as demonstrated by the latest offensive. While HTS claims to have distanced itself from al-Qaeda, its goal of overthrowing Assad aligns with those of other opposition groups, including expelling Iranian and Russian forces as well as Hezbollah and Shiite militias.
Broken Ceasefire
Russia, Turkey, and Iran established a ceasefire in Syria under the Astana agreements, which lasted until November 27. Syria remains devastated and fragmented: the northeast is controlled by Kurds with U.S. bases, the northwest by HTS and Turkish-backed groups, and the rest by Assad, with some zones influenced by Iran or Russia. The Astana deal reflected goodwill by Russia and Iran toward Turkey, but recent clashes reignited tensions.
HTS’s rapid advance revealed the fragility of the Syrian military. The loss of Aleppo and Hama is significant but not necessarily decisive for Assad, Iran, or their allies. The city of Homs, a key strategic hub, remains crucial for maintaining connections between Damascus, Tartus, and other regions.
Western media often employ selective terminology, calling Assad’s opponents “rebels” while labeling groups like Hezbollah “terrorists.” As fighting continues and diplomats negotiate, Syria’s future remains uncertain.
